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Developed economies

　　Over the edge　
　
　　Oct 30th 2008

　　From The Economist print edition

　　AS RECENTLY as a month ago, there were still hopes that America and Europe might just pull back from the precipice of a recession. Those hopes have been dashed. The economies of the rich world seem to have fallen off a cliff. The question now is the height of the drop.

　　Central banks are trying to cushion the fall. On October 29th the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate to 1%, matching the trough it reached in 2003. It may cut again. With remarkable speed, worries have shifted from inflation, which is still around 5%, to deflation. Fed officials still think that, if even pessimistic forecasts came to pass, inflation would not fall below zero. But Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecaster, now reckons that core inflation will fall to 1.3% by 2010, too close to zero for the Fed’s comfort. They expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate to 0.5% in December and then, with scant room for more cuts, that it may try to stimulate growth using unconventional measures such as further expanding its lending facilities to banks and other firms.

　　The rate cut was needed. America’s economic data have become starkly weaker since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. The latest GDP numbers, released on October 30th, showed that output fell by an annualised 0.3% in the third quarter. Surveys of manufacturing activity have shifted down. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits have shot up. A monthly index of consumer attitudes compiled by the Conference Board, a research group, plummeted to a record low of 38 in October, down from 61.4 in September.

　　Confidence surveys are unreliable predictors of consumer spending. But the destruction of wealth through falling stockmarkets and tightening credit conditions are already having an effect. On a seasonally adjusted basis, light-vehicle sales in September were the lowest since 1992, according to Autodata Corp, a research firm. On October 28th Whirlpool, an appliance maker, gave warning that low home sales would cut revenue and Royal Caribbean Cruises, a cruise operator, lowered profit estimates because of “a significant deterioration recently in new bookings”.

　　A similar downward lurch is under way in Europe, where the European Central Bank seems poised to cut interest rates for the second time this autumn on November 6th. The Munich Ifo Institute’s index, which measures the mood of German businesses, sank to its lowest level for more than five years in October. Volvo wins the prize for statistic of the crunch to date. The Swedish firm said it had received a mere 115 orders for heavy trucks in Europe in the third quarter, down by 99.7% on the 41,970 order bookings during the same period of 2007.
America and Europe cannot count on exports to make up for faltering domestic demand, because the crisis has spread to emerging markets. Airbus and Boeing, for example, had counted on orders of 300 aircraft from India in the next five years to help offset slower demand in Europe and America. Some of those are in jeopardy. Jet Airways, India’s largest domestic carrier, announced its biggest quarterly loss in more than three years on October 25th.

　　Economists disagree about how bad it will get. Dean Maki of Barclays Capital says that falling wealth tends to affect consumer spending over many years rather than right away. It is just the opposite with changes in real income because of petrol prices. Consumer spending could conceivably be lifted by the sharp drop in oil prices that has unfolded since July, which Macroeconomic Advisers estimates to be worth more than $100 billion on an annualised basis. Mr Maki notes that consumer confidence plunged after the September 11th terrorist attacks but that Fed rate cuts enabled interest-free loans which dramatically boosted car sales. Another small positive sign is that home sales rose slightly in September and that house prices have actually risen in a few cities.

　　These glimmers may be snuffed out by the unprecedented tightening in credit now under way. According to Ed McKelvey of Goldman Sachs, the only comparable modern precedent is the federal government’s short-lived imposition of credit controls in early 1980, which produced a dramatic downturn in American consumer spending. That episode ended when controls were removed. Today, credit restraint chiefly depends on how long it takes the private sector to respond to policy actions such as the Fed’s commercial-paper purchases and the widespread recapitalisation of weakened banks. “Government is working as hard as it can, but in the end it’s the private sector that does the lending,” he says.

　　翻譯：yuvia

　　就在一個月前，人們還盼望著歐美各國能夠從衰退的絕境中起死回生；而今，希望已完全破滅。各富裕國家的經濟情況均搖搖欲墜，現在的問題只是將會摔得多慘。

　　各國央行紛紛推出舉措減緩衰退。十月二十九日美聯儲將聯邦基金利率下降至1%，再次采取和2003年一樣的措施。利率還可能繼續下調。以這種速度降下去，人們擔心目前還在5%左右的通貨膨脹將有可能轉變為緊縮。但是美聯儲官方認為，即使悲觀預測不行成真，通脹率仍不會降至零。但據宏觀經濟咨詢公司估算，到2010年核心通貨考試*大]膨脹率有可能降至1.3%，這已與美聯儲零的底線太過接近了。該公司預測，12月份美聯儲有可能將基金利率下調至0.5%；12月之后，由于下調空間不足，美聯儲可能將采取向銀行和其他公司外借設備等非常規手段以保持經濟的增長。

　　降低利率是必要的。自九月中旬雷曼兄弟公司破產以來，美國經濟數據已明顯呈現劣勢。10月30日公布的最新GDP數據顯示，第三季度產量按年率計算負增長0.3%。制造業活動調查急跌，每周初次申請失業救濟人數激增。美國經濟咨商局公布十月份消費者信心指數較九月的61.4點下降了整整38點。

　　消費者信心指數對消費支出的預測雖不可靠，但股票市場暴跌帶來的財產損失和變差的信用狀況確確實實造成了影響。在經季節性調整制度背景下，據汽車數據公司調查顯示，輕型汽車銷售量已于九月份跌至1992年以來的最低點。10月28日電器廠家惠而浦提出警示稱國內銷售下降必將減少財政收入。同日，皇家加勒比海游輪公司稱由于“一項新訂單中的重大損失”下調了利潤估算。

　　歐洲也正面臨著類似的下降局面。歐洲央行準備好于11月6日進行*考試&大秋季第二次利率下調。德國慕尼黑IFO研究機構編制的經濟景氣指數在五年多來于10月降低至最低。沃爾沃集團在此危機中受影響最為嚴重。這家瑞典企業第三季度僅僅接到歐洲115份重型汽車訂單，較2007年同期的41970份下降了99.7%。

　　美國和歐洲不能靠出口來彌補岌岌可危的內需，因為危機已波及至新興市場。空中客車公司和波音公司在未來五年內要靠印度的300個訂單來抵消歐美市場減緩的需求。然而這筆訂單也很危險。印度最大的航空公司捷特航空在10月25日剛剛公布了三年多以來季度最大損失報告。
經濟學者對衰敗前景觀點不一。巴克萊資本的迪安·馬基認為財富流失不會立即產生效應，而是會在未來數年內對消費支出造成持續影響。這于油價變化造成實際收入變化對消費支出的影響不同。自七月油價大幅跳水后居民消費如預料之中有所抬頭，宏觀經濟咨詢公司估計年增長約1000億美元。迪安·馬基指出，“九一一”后消費信心急降，而后利率下調貸款免息使得卻增加了汽車銷量。九月，部分城市房價上揚，而國內消費卻小幅度有所增長，這也在一定程度上驗證了這一預測。

　　然而，這一絲曙光也有可能被目前空前惡劣的信用狀況扼*考試&大殺。高盛經濟學家麥凱維提出，現代史上唯一一次可以與目前狀況媲美的是上個世紀八十年代初期聯邦政府短命的信貸稅收管制政策，那一次造成了美國居民消費支出的顯著下降。管制結束后，下降局面立即結束。而今，信用約束的作用主要取決于個人能夠多快對比如商業票據購買、蕭條銀行的廣泛資產重整等政府決策做出反應�！罢�府盡一切努力調整，但貸款終究是個人決策�！彼�說道。

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